By most standards, the Chinese Grand Prix was an average Formula 1 race. Most of the good wheel to wheel racing was either in the middle to back end of the field. The top positions were dominated by Mercedes and Ferrari running 1-2-3-4. Still, China was an important race in the 2015 Formula 1 calendar in the sense that after the shenanigans that happened in Australia and Ferrari's upset victory in Malaysia meant that it was really hard to gauge the field's balance of power. After the race in China however, we can start to draw some conclussions about the performance of the teams. With that in mind, here is The Racing Nerd analysis of some of key story lines from the race.
Red Bull is on Fire (Literally)
It never fails to amaze me how fickle the whims of fate can be in Formula 1. This time two years ago, Red Bull was working on their fourth year dominating the sport. Now in 2015, Red Bull is stuggling to out perform their development team, Toro Rosso.
The middling performance that Red Bull has been struggling with all year continued in Beijing. A lot of the blame for Red Bull's problems can be placed squarely at the feet of engine supplier Renault. Daniel Riccardo needed to change an engine over night between qualifying and the race, and Daniil Kvyat 's engine burst into flames on lap 16, while Max Verstappen's Toro Rosso had the engine explode on him on lap 54, which brought out a late race safety car period and resulted in the race finishing under caution.
Without a doubt, the fact that the Renault engines are down on power to the Mercedes and Ferrari's is going to cause Red Bull and Toro Rosso to struggle for most of the year, but the reliability issues could be even more disastrous. Remember that each car is only allowed to use four engines over the course of the year, with grid penalties for every engine the teams use above and beyond their allotment. If Renault can't stop their engines from self destructing, then Red Bull and Toro Rosso are going to get a lot of practice starting from the back of the grid come the second half of the year.
Speaking of starting from the back of the grid, Daniel Ricardo had some additional problems of his own making this weekend when he dropped from 7th to 17th at the start of the race after he almost stalled the engine on the grid. Ricardo eventually was able to work is way back up to 10th by the end of the race. Ricardo is quickly becoming on of my favorite drivers in Formula 1, and I'm convinced no one on currently on the grid is better at overtaking (long a dying art in Formula 1), then Ricardo. He's got the making of future champion, but he needs a car better then what he currently has.
McLaren Honda Increases Speed from Painfully Slow to Mediocre
McLaren is obviously in no danger of winning the constructor's championship this year. Come to think about it, McLaren is in no danger of winning anything this year. That being said, Button finished 13th in China (after punting Pastor Maldonado's car out of the way, an incident that earned him a demotion to 14th after the race), and Alonso finished 12th. Given that McLaren was only able to get one car to the grid in Australia, and both Button and Alonso failed to finish in Malaysia, that's a pretty good increase in finishing position in only three races. McLaren is showing incremental improvement every race, and is knocking on the door for point paying finishes. It will be interesting to see just how much McLaren is going to be able to improve the performance of their car by the end of the season.
Manor Finishes (Seriously, that's a Big Deal)
Manor's two car's finished 15th and 16th, otherwise known as the last two cars still on the track when the checkered flag flew, which is actually a significant achievement for the embattled team. Not only did manor finish, but this weekend Manor's qualifying time was within the 107% rule. Given that Manor is effectively racing a year old chassis and wasn't even able to fire up the engine until Malaysia, the fact that Manor was able to get this much performance out of the car is nothing short of amazing. I think we can look forward to seeing Manor on the grid for the rest of the season, albeit at the back of the grid.
While Manor may be the little F1 team that could, they still have a hard road ahead of them. Financially, Manor is being kept alive by bankruptcy law and their 2014 championship prize winnings. You'll also notice that Manor's car has a somewhat 1960's style livery, and by 1960's livery I mean completely devoid of sponsorship. Manor still has serious financial problems, and I have doubts as to whether or not they will be on the grid in 2016.
Ferrari Challenges, but Mercedes Still Dominates
I really want to see a true championship fight between Ferrari and Mercedes this year, but the race in China convinced me that simply isn't going to happen. Mercedes qualified one-two, and stayed there the entire race. The racing press was looking very closely at Mercedes' and Ferrari's long stint lap times from free practice this weekend, and the question was whether Ferrari could manage their tires better then Mercedes and mount a late race challenge with better tires. The answer was no, no they could not. Both Mercedes and Ferrari opted for a two stop strategy, using the option (soft compound) tires for the first two stints, and the prime (medium compound) tires for the last stint. For both pit stops, Sebastian Vettle was the first to bring his car into the pits. At that point, Hamilton would come in one to three laps later, after laying down a handful of blistering laps which made sure Hamilton would come out of the pits in front of Vettle.
Simply put, Mercedes' pace was a weapon that Ferrari didn't have an answer for. Mercedes could simply hold back, protect their tires (thereby negating Ferrari's main advantage), match Ferrari's pit strategy, and then let the extra speed of their car keep them out front and carry them to victory. That doesn't mean that the Ferrari's where slow. Hamilton and Rosberg weren't able to run away and hide, but Ferrari didn't have the speed to chase down the Mercedes drivers. I think that Mercedes learned in Malaysia that as long as they don't make any extra pit stops compared to Ferrari, and don't make mistakes, they should be in the dominate position to win the race.
Of course this basic strategy requires that Mercedes not burn the tires off the car. In theory this is where Ferrari may be able to gain some ground on Mercedes since the SF15-T has a reputation for being gentle on tires. Unfortunately for Ferrari, Louis Hamilton is probably one of the best, if not the best current driver when it comes to managing the car, conserving the tires when he needs to, and then putting down quick laps when required.
Does this mean that Mercedes is going to walk away with every race from now until the end of the season? Of course not. Ferrari still likely has an advantage at tracks with high tire wear, as seen in Malaysia. Mercedes can only do so much to preserve their tires without sacrificing too much speed to Ferrari. Plus, Vettle is still currently second in the drivers championship and a great driver in his own right. If Ferrari wants to be a serious championship contender however, they are going to need to find more speed in the car.
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