Formula 1 preseason testing is over. The next time we'll see all the teams in one place is when they take to the track in anger for the first race in Australia on March 15th. Not only does that mean we're only two weeks away from the start of the 2015 season, it means I'm running out of time to make baseless allegations regarding car performance, with no race results available to prove me wrong. With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to rank each time from strongest to weakest as we head to Melbourne.
1). Mercedes
This list isn't intended to be a prediction of the constructors championship, but I'll make an exception for Mercedes. After the first test session in Jerez, I predicted that Mercedes would have the fastest car of the field, even though they weren't topping the lap charts at the time (read about it here). Lap times from the last test in Barcelona certainly suggest I was right. Mercedes is able to meet or exceed the lap times of the other teams using harder tire compounds. That, is what we in America, call a hot rod. Based on last year's championship results, it shouldn't be a surprise that the W06 Hybrid is the class of the field. The only real question regarding the Mercedes is whether Hamilton or Rosberg will be 2015 world champion.
2). Williams
If the Mercedes W06 Hybrid didn't exist, the Williams FW37 would likely be the car to beat. Williams was the only team besides Mercedes to claim a pole position in 2015, and they posted very impressive lap times on the last day of preseason testing in Barcelona. Every thing points to the fact that Williams has the fastest car in the paddock that isn't a Mercedes. Having a fast car doesn't guarantee race wins, but there hasn't been a driver in Formula 1 history who wished his car was slower. The speed of the Williams' sets them up well for success as the season starts.
3). Ferrari
If nothing else, Ferrari is a strong early contender for 2015's most-improved award. Much ado was made about Ferrari not winning any races last year, which was the first time this happened since 1993. Although I think that statistic says more about Mercedes' dominate performance then it does about Ferrari. Still, Ferrari would probably like to forget about 2014 since it was definitely a rough year for them. For Ferrari to then come out of the gate and dominate the lap charts at the first test at Jerez was a surprise for everyone. What's interesting is that Sauber (with a Ferrari engine) was also quick in Jerez, suggesting that the Ferrari engine has come a long way over the winter, and is probably the second best engine in the field for 2015. While Ferrari wasn't able to dominate the lap times at the following tests, Kimi Rikkonen and Sebastian Vettel were still able to keep the Ferrari competitive on time. Expect to be seeing more of the cars with the prancing horses near the front of the grid in 2015.
4). Red Bull
Red Bull is a hard team for me to wrap my head around at the moment. On the one hand, they were the only team to deny Mercedes a perfect season last year, and the team obviously knows how to build a car, but other then their crazy camo livery, did any part of their preseason testing really stand out? It's probably a pretty safe bet that Red Bull is going to be in the top four in the constructors championship at the end of the season, but I'm not sure exactly where. Since Red Bull's preseason performance could be summed up with a shrug of the shoulders, they are relegated to a fourth place spot in the rankings.
5). Sauber
2014 was a hard year for Sauber fans. Sauber has always been at least a mid-field team, and has always scored points. Except for 2014. The January 2015 issue of Racecar Engineering has a full write-up on Sauber's 2014 struggles. To summarize very briefly though, Sauber struggled to design a car around the then-new hybrid V6 engines. They didn't understand the packaging or cooling requirements of the new power plants until very late in the design process. As a result, they had a heavy, compromised, car. This year, Sauber has a much better idea of what they are doing, and are using the (apparently) much improved Ferrari power plant. Sauber was even able to top the lap charts a couple of times at Jerez. While Suaber still has to deal with the financial challenges that all of the smaller F1 teams are currently dealing with, they should go back to their usual status as a regular points contender.
6). Toro Rosso
Toro Rosso has said that their goal for this year is fifth place in the constructors championship. That's a pretty ambitious goal, because that means they are going to need to out race McLaren, as well as all the other traditionally mid-pack teams. A quick review of the preseason lap time charts though suggests that this is within Toro Rosso's reach. While I have every faith in Toro Rosso's car, I'm not so sure about their driver line up. Both of Toro Rosso's drivers are Formula 1 rookies. McLaren's lineup by comparison contains not one, but two former champions. Both Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen may one day mature into great Formula 1 racers, but that likely won't happen over night. Very talented drivers, with far more experience then these two have struggled in their first year of Formula 1. Rookie drivers make rookie mistakes, and I think that is going to make Toro Rosso's goal of a fifth in the constructor's championship an uphill climb.
7). Force India
Normally, I would rank Force India ahead of Sauber. Force India has a lot going for them. They have a talented driver line up, a Mercedes Benz engine, and ran a successful program in 2014. What Force India doesn't have is money. Force India was barely able to get their 2015 car ready in time for the last test at Barcelona, and it's still up in the air as to whether or not they will have a second car prepared in time for Melbourne. The VJM08 simply doesn't have nearly as much development time on it as it's competitors have. Expect Force India to be playing catch up to the rest of the field in terms of developing the car.
8). Lotus
Poor Lotus. Remember when Kimi Rikkonen was racing for them? Not only did they win a race, they finished fourth in the constructors championship, with Kimi finishing third in the drivers championship. Those days are gone. Lotus never quite came to grips with their 2014 car, and their driver lineup leaves something to be desired (looking at you Pastor Maldonado). As far as I'm concerned, Lotus has exactly one thing going for them in 2015, the class-of-the-field Mercedes Benz engine powering the car. Other then that, I'm not sure they have much to gloat about. Other then the Mercedes power plant, their car is able to go out an turn laps (when Maldonado isn't stuffing it into the nearest wall), which keeps Lotus out of last place on this list.
9). McLaren
McLaren is probably one of the most storied teams in Formula 1, and the reunion of McLaren and Honda should have been a new chapter in a legendary story. Unfortunately for McLaren, this chapter is looking like it's a tragedy. Looking at comparative lap times throughout the three test weekends, McLaren pretty consistently pulled up the back of the field. I believe though that this isn't because the Honda engine is horribly underpowered (although it might be underpowered), but is instead a product of the power plants horrible reliability. McLaren couldn't push their equipment like the other teams could, assuming they could actually get their car out of the pit lane. I've said before, McLaren and Honda have the resources to fix what's wrong with this engine, and once they get that worked out they should have a pretty decent package (assuming the Honda engine makes enough power to be competitive). The question is will the Honda engine get sorted out in time for McLaren to salvage their season. Only time will tell. One thing is for sure though, neither Fernando Alonso or Jenson Button is looking forward to Melbourne.
Bonus). Manor (the race team formerly known as Marussia)
Manor is in a good news, bad news situation. The good news is that after a lot of tragedy and heartache last year, they have been officially added to the 2015 F1 entries list. Technically. They still need to prepare a car for 2015, which isn't guaranteed to happen. If they do field a car, it won't be the least bit competitive, since it will be their old 2014 car, with a 2014 Ferrari engine, modified to meet the 2015 regulations. Manor isn't racing for championships, wins, points or even finishes this year. Manor's goal is to claim the 46 million dollars Bernie owes them for finishing 9th in the 2014 constructors championship. Assuming they do make the grid (which would be a minor miracle if it happens), I wouldn't be surprised if Manor disappears as soon as they cash the check for the 2014 prize money. That being said, if your a fan of the GP Rejects site (the successor to the now defunct F1 Rejects), you have your team for 2015.
So there we have it. The Racing Nerd Formula 1 power ranking for 2015.
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